{"id":3005,"date":"2026-02-08T15:29:43","date_gmt":"2026-02-08T11:59:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iranbri.com\/%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%b8%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%aa-%da%86%d9%86%d8%af%d9%84%d8%a7%db%8c%d9%87-%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87-%d9%88-%d9%86%d8%ae%d8%a8%da%af%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b3%db%8c%d8%a7%d8%b3%db%8c\/"},"modified":"2026-02-08T15:53:33","modified_gmt":"2026-02-08T12:23:33","slug":"%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%b8%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%aa-%da%86%d9%86%d8%af%d9%84%d8%a7%db%8c%d9%87-%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87-%d9%88-%d9%86%d8%ae%d8%a8%da%af%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b3%db%8c%d8%a7%d8%b3%db%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iranbri.com\/en\/%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%b8%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%aa-%da%86%d9%86%d8%af%d9%84%d8%a7%db%8c%d9%87-%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87-%d9%88-%d9%86%d8%ae%d8%a8%da%af%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b3%db%8c%d8%a7%d8%b3%db%8c\/","title":{"rendered":"Multi-Layered Expectations of Iranian Society and Political Elites from China in the Context of Developments in 1404 (2025)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kamand Bahrami<\/strong>
\nResearcher in China Studies and Executive Secretary of the Iranian Institute of Belt and Road Studies<\/p>\n

The year 1404 (2025) marked one of the most significant historical periods for the Islamic Republic of Iran in strengthening economic independence and resisting international pressure. With Donald Trump\u2019s return to power and the continuation of Washington\u2019s restrictive policies, Iran entered a strategic path of redefining its international relations. In this context, the role of the People\u2019s Republic of China\u2014as Iran\u2019s principal strategic partner and a global power inclined toward sustainable cooperation with Tehran\u2014became more important than ever.<\/p>\n

Iranian expectations from China in this year were primarily centered on strengthening national resilience and utilizing bilateral capacities to overcome sanctions-related obstacles.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Macroeconomic Context and Strategic Outlook in the 1404 Budget<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Iran\u2019s economic developments in 1404 reflected broad efforts to achieve development goals amid regional and global constraints. With a realistic outlook, the government regarded the deepening of economic relations with China in the 1404 budget as a \u201cpositive opportunity\u201d and a strategic path for industrial modernization and resolving challenges arising from energy imbalances.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s position as Iran\u2019s largest export destination was further strengthened. Allocating a major share of oil exports to the Chinese market indicated a strong and strategic bond between the two countries, ensuring Iran\u2019s foreign-exchange revenue stability and enhancing Iran\u2019s role in East Asia\u2019s energy supply chain.<\/p>\n

Iranian political elites expected China, as a \u201cstrategic buyer,\u201d to resist U.S. unilateralism and tariff threats and to facilitate financial resources for infrastructure projects and productive sector investments.<\/p>\n

Table 1. Statistical Analysis of Economic Indicators and China\u2019s Expected Role in 1404<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Macroeconomic Indicator<\/strong><\/div><\/td>\n
Status in 1404<\/strong><\/div><\/td>\n
\u00a0Expectation from China<\/strong><\/div><\/td>\n
Expected Strategic Impact<\/strong><\/div><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Economic growth rate<\/div><\/td>\n
2.8%<\/div><\/td>\n
Investment in knowledge-based industries and renewable energy<\/div><\/td>\n
Exit from recession and partial realization of Vision 1404 goals<\/div><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Inflation rate<\/div><\/td>\n
Over 40%<\/div><\/td>\n
Provision of essential and intermediate goods at preferential rates<\/div><\/td>\n
Prevention of poverty expansion and containment of social discontent<\/div><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Share of oil exports to China<\/div><\/td>\n
92%<\/div><\/td>\n
Guarantee continued purchases despite Trump\u2019s 25% tariffs<\/div><\/td>\n
Financing the state budget and personnel expenditures<\/div><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Budget deficit<\/div><\/td>\n
Critical<\/div><\/td>\n
Activation of credit lines under the 25-year cooperation agreement<\/div><\/td>\n
Preventing domination of capital markets by government bonds<\/div><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Approach of Economic Elites<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Based on this study, Iranian economic elites in 1404 believed that China should continue acting as the engine of trade cooperation through parallel financial networks. New payment systems and barter trade mechanisms became effective tools for neutralizing sanctions.<\/p>\n

Parallel financial networks and modern payment systems:<\/strong>
\nMechanisms such as alternative international payment systems and barter trade (e.g., oil in exchange for consumer goods or technology) became key instruments for bypassing sanctions.<\/p>\n

Impact on domestic production:<\/strong>
\nIran expects China to assist domestic production through advanced technology transfer (e.g., petrochemicals, automotive, renewable energy) and infrastructure investment, thereby reducing dependence on imports.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Political\u2013Security Expectations of the Iranian State in an Era of Crises<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 1404, Iran faced existential threats, including air strikes on nuclear facilities and a 12-day war. Political elites expected China to go beyond diplomatic statements and provide \u201ceffective security support.\u201d<\/p>\n

Iran emphasized strengthening its defense capabilities (through military cooperation with China) and activating multilateral diplomacy with an Eastern orientation. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China was expected to protect Iran against Western pressure and sanctions.<\/p>\n

Regional stability is viewed by China as equivalent to energy security. Iran considers itself a pillar of China\u2019s energy security, particularly in transit corridors such as the Belt and Road Initiative. Consequently, Iran expects China to play a more active role in maintaining stability in the Middle East, especially in the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Iran also expects China to transfer advanced technologies in areas such as missile systems, drones, cyber defense, and air defense, thereby shifting the regional balance of power in Iran\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

China\u2019s Role in Managing Domestic Crises and Regime Stability<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The events of Dey 1404 (December 2025) generated new expectations regarding security technologies. Political elites expect China, as a \u201cdigital strategic partner,\u201d to provide tools for controlling cyberspace and strengthening surveillance infrastructure.<\/p>\n

Reports on Chinese companies such as Tiandy<\/em> assisting in tracking civil activists indicate partial realization of these expectations. Iran expects China to view Tehran\u2019s stability as part of its own energy and trade corridor security.<\/p>\n

Some Chinese analysts, including Hu Xijin<\/em>, argue that despite internal pressures, Iran\u2019s political system will demonstrate resilience due to military elite commitment and religious roots\u2014provided that China continues its economic and technological support.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Diplomacy under Trump\u2019s Threats and the Snapback Mechanism<\/strong><\/h2>\n

With Trump\u2019s return and his threats of heavy tariffs on countries cooperating with Iran, Tehran expected Beijing to function as a \u201ctariff shield.\u201d While China opposed unilateralism diplomatically, Iranian elites remain concerned that China might sacrifice Iran in a grand bargain with Washington.<\/p>\n

During the activation of the snapback mechanism by European powers, Iran expects China to defend Iranian sovereignty and act as a counterbalance to U.S. pressure.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The 25-Year Cooperation Agreement: From Idealism to Infrastructure Realities<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In 1404, the Iran\u2013China 25-year cooperation agreement entered a challenging phase. Iranian expectations focused on:<\/p>\n