Ahmadreza Yousefvand
Research Deputy, Iranian Institute for Belt and Road Studies
Geopolitical cooperation between the People’s Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Iran has become a cornerstone of an emerging multipolar order, one consequence of which is the challenge it poses to traditional U.S. hegemony in the Middle East. This cooperation is not merely a bilateral agreement on energy and trade; rather, it reflects a profound normative shift in international relations. In practice, Beijing provides Tehran with a diplomatic, economic, and increasingly technological shield against a range of existential threats. While Iran faces escalating external military pressure from the United States and the Israeli regime, China’s response has thus far consisted of two essential components: adherence to the principle of national sovereignty and a degree of strategic support. This approach derives from the Global Security Initiative (GSI), which emphasizes the indivisibility of security—a concept employed both to delegitimize Western interventionism and to enhance China’s role as a principal alternative to the U.S.-led global order.
The Global Security Initiative and the Paradigm of National Sovereignty
China’s engagement with Iran is grounded in the Global Security Initiative, a conceptual framework introduced by President Xi Jinping that elevates national sovereignty and non-interference to the status of absolute international obligations. By stressing that “the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be taken seriously,” China provides a framework in which Iran’s regional influence and nuclear program are interpreted as defensive responses to external expansionism and coercion. This strategy aims to limit U.S. power through the promotion of an alternative security architecture based on “China-centricity” and the rejection of “bloc confrontation.”
The Chinese government largely views threats against Iran through the lens of its rivalry with the United States. For Beijing, a stable Iran is important for three main reasons: first, it guarantees a reliable flow of energy independent of direct U.S. dollar influence; second, it diverts U.S. military resources away from the Indo-Pacific; and third, it functions as a critical geographic node in the Belt and Road Initiative. Consequently, any threat to Iran is seen in Beijing as a potential victory for what it terms America’s “predatory diplomacy,” which must be neutralized whenever possible.
At the same time, China avoids direct confrontation with the United States and seeks to manage the situation at minimal cost. China’s expanding security role in Iran is primarily a protective measure for its energy investments. Decisions such as supplying air defense systems or conducting joint naval exercises stem from the need to prevent conflict spillover that could disrupt global energy markets and destabilize Belt and Road infrastructure. Beijing’s active role in regional diplomacy is driven not by ambitions to act as a global policeman like the United States, but by commercial and strategic imperatives tied to safeguarding its modernization process.
China’s View of the Twelve-Day War
In 2025, the transformation of the long-standing shadow war between Israel and Iran into direct military confrontation marked a paradigm shift in the Middle East security environment. During this period, China’s approach evolved from purely rhetorical support to active diplomatic backing and logistical assistance. A clear manifestation of this shift was Beijing’s strong condemnation of Tel Aviv’s actions during the June 2025 war.
Fu Cong, China’s ambassador, repeatedly described Israeli operations at UN Security Council briefings as “military adventurism” and violations of fundamental norms of international relations and the UN Charter. This stance aimed to portray China as a defender of legitimate rights and interests in the Global South. When Israel sought to justify its attacks by citing imminent nuclear threats, Chinese officials and analysts dismissed these claims as baseless and aligned with regime-change objectives. This refusal to accept Israeli narratives signaled strategic alignment with Iran, as Beijing considers the collapse of Iran—which would leave the United States unchallenged in the Persian Gulf—to be a high-risk scenario.
Technical Support
One of the most significant yet ambiguous aspects of China’s response to external threats is its willingness to act as a security partner when traditional allies such as Russia are preoccupied. Following attacks in 2024 and early 2025 that severely weakened Iran’s Russian-made S-300 air defense systems, reports from Arab officials to Middle East Eye suggested that China had delivered surface-to-air missile batteries to Tehran. Although denied by Beijing, this transfer may indicate a departure from China’s historical caution regarding direct arms sales to active conflict zones, particularly as social media widely circulated reports of multiple flights bound for Iran.
Beyond this, China has played a decisive role in strengthening Iran through the sale of dual-use technologies. This has enabled Tehran to maintain its defense strategy despite international sanctions. Such technical cooperation ensures that while China avoids direct confrontation, Iran remains capable of posing a significant threat to U.S. and Israeli assets, thereby preserving the regional balance of power.
U.S. Threats: Tariffs, Naval Power, and Economic Warfare
The return of the Trump administration in early 2026 led to intensified U.S. military and economic pressure on Iran, including the deployment of a massive naval fleet in the Indian Ocean and threats to impose punitive 25 percent tariffs on any country trading with Iran. Beijing’s response to Washington’s “predatory diplomacy” combined firm resistance with systematic evasion. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning declared that “tariff wars have no winners” and that China would “resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests” in trade with Iran.
For China, tariff threats are part of a broader geopolitical struggle. To mitigate their impact, Beijing has accelerated the development of financial instruments operating outside the U.S. dollar system. These include the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and the promotion of the yuan for oil settlements, allowing Tehran to bypass SWIFT and reduce the impact of maximum pressure policies.
China and Digital Sovereignty in Iran
Beijing portrays Iran’s internal unrest as “foreign-instigated disturbances” and as pretexts for military intervention. The January 2026 events, triggered by worsening economic conditions and foreign involvement, were met with a swift Iranian response. China’s Foreign Ministry expressed confidence that the Iranian government could “overcome its current difficulties.” This form of “biased neutrality” demonstrated that Beijing would not join international condemnation efforts.
A critical dimension of China’s approach is cybersecurity support. Under the 25-year comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, China and Iran have expanded cooperation in “cyberspace development” and “information infrastructure.”
At the UN Human Rights Council’s special session in January 2026, China was among seven countries voting against extending the mandate of the fact-finding mission on Iran. Beijing argued that the session represented a political effort by Western powers to interfere in Iran’s sovereignty and distract attention from Israeli actions in Gaza.
The Trilateral Pact: A New Model for Regional Security
The formal signing of a trilateral strategic pact between China, Iran, and Russia in late January 2026 represents the most significant shift in Middle Eastern relations in the twenty-first century. While not a formal mutual defense treaty, it explicitly aligns the three powers within a coordinated framework that rejects unilateral policies and defends nuclear sovereignty. This pact reflects China’s regional strategy of integrating Iran into a broader Eurasian security architecture aimed at constructing a “multipolar order” in which power is distributed among multiple independent decision-making centers.
Through support from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS Plus, China has sought to end Western-led isolation of Iran and strengthen Tehran’s position in Iraq, Syria, and the Persian Gulf.
Military and Naval Interoperability
The security dimension of this trilateral pact is most visible in the “Maritime Security Belt” naval exercises. In early 2026, these drills—held in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz—demonstrated operational coordination beyond mere political alignment. Scenarios included the liberation of hijacked vessels and tactical fleet formations, signaling China’s growing role alongside sanctioned states in challenging U.S. naval dominance in key energy corridors.
For Beijing, these exercises are essential for protecting its energy transport routes. With nearly 50 percent of China’s crude oil imports passing through the Middle East, the security of the Strait of Hormuz is viewed as an existential interest. By conducting joint exercises with Iran and Russia, China presents itself as a provider of “maritime public goods” and challenges the U.S. Navy’s exclusive role as guarantor of freedom of navigation. This presence acts as a deterrent against any U.S. or Israeli plan to block the strait as a means of pressuring Tehran.
Balanced Diplomacy: The Saudi Arabia–Iran–China Triangle
Despite deepening ties with Tehran, China remains a pragmatic actor that avoids full alignment with any single regional power. A key component of its approach is mediating Saudi-Iranian relations, which Beijing views as essential for regional stability. The 2023 Beijing Agreement and its continued implementation through a trilateral joint committee in 2025 and 2026 illustrate China’s role in reducing tensions before U.S. intervention becomes necessary.
At a trilateral meeting in Tehran in December 2025, China encouraged Riyadh and Tehran to adhere to principles of good neighborliness and reject destabilizing interference by external powers. Beijing’s strategy seeks to create a united regional front to address common challenges—such as the Israel-Palestine conflict—while marginalizing the U.S. role as security guarantor.
At the same time, China’s trade relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE far exceed those with Iran. Thus, China’s support for Iran is tempered by the need to maintain comprehensive strategic partnerships with Gulf Cooperation Council states.
Limitations of China’s Role
In-depth analysis shows that regional developments and threats against Iran provide strategic opportunities for global actors, including China. Beijing has mastered the art of quasi-mediation—engaging in conflict resolution efforts to protect its interests without assuming the risks or costs associated with traditional mediation or security guarantees.
One of the most important insights into China’s strategy is the “asymmetry of importance.” While Iran views China as a vital lifeline, Beijing regards Iran as a useful but non-essential strategic partner. This may explain why President Xi Jinping has not paid an official visit to Iran since 2016, despite extensive high-level exchanges with Gulf leaders.
Future Outlook: Strategic Projections for the Remainder of 2026
- Normalization of trilateral military exercises: The Maritime Security Belt is likely to become a permanent security mechanism and may expand to include other BRICS members such as Egypt or South Africa, further weakening U.S. maritime authority.
- Financial decoupling: The use of the digital yuan and yuan-based settlements will become standard in China-Iran trade and serve as a model for other sanctioned states such as Russia.
- Expansion of surveillance: Following the 2026 events, China is likely to increase technical assistance to Iran, focusing on AI-powered policing systems.
- Escalation of “veto diplomacy”: China will probably continue using its permanent seat on the UN Security Council to block attempts to reimpose multilateral sanctions, effectively neutralizing the JCPOA snapback mechanism and forcing the U.S. into unilateralism, thereby alienating its European allies.
Conclusion
China’s approach to threats against Iran constitutes a comprehensive and integrated strategy designed to preserve the Islamic Republic as an effective anti-hegemonic partner while minimizing China’s direct military exposure. Through the Global Security Initiative, Beijing has constructed a “sovereignty shield” around Tehran, providing diplomatic cover, economic lifelines, and technical surveillance tools necessary to withstand internal volatility and external aggression. This partnership is not founded on shared ideology but on a strategic alignment against U.S. dominance.
As the Middle East enters an unprecedented period of turbulence in 2026, the China-Iran relationship will remain a central pillar of the emerging multipolar order, challenging Western-led deterrence and shaping the security architecture of the twenty-first century.
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