[Bardia Farahmand, international affairs expert]

[The finalization of the $7 billion deal between Australia and Japan to build advanced stealth frigates is not merely an arms deal, but rather the laying of a robust defensive barrier to contain China’s growing naval power in the Indo-Pacific region. While the power structure in Asia is changing, these two democratic powers have concluded that to maintain the balance of power, they can no longer rely solely on the presence of the United States].

Main objective: Deterrence against Beijing

The main root of this military convergence is the shared fear of China’s aggressive behavior in the region’s waters. In recent years, Beijing, by militarizing artificial islands in the South China Sea and increasing pressure on Taiwan, has shown that it seeks to redefine international maritime law. This, for Japan in the north and Australia in the south, poses a serious threat to commercial arteries.

The goal of equipping Australia with Mogami-class frigates is to create an “active deterrence” capability. These vessels, with their advanced anti-submarine warfare capabilities, are designed directly to counter China’s subsurface fleet. The message of this alliance to Beijing is clear: any attempt to block sea lanes or change the status quo will be met with a coordinated response from two of the most equipped navies in the region.]

?Why cannot India join this hard core

Many analysts ask why India, as another member of the “Quad” group][^1][, does not participate at this level of close military cooperation. The answer lies in India’s critical geography. While Australia and Japan are primarily maritime powers, India faces a huge and direct land challenge: the Himalayan borders

India is engaged in a long and exhausting border dispute with China along the “Line of Actual Control”][^2][. The bloody tensions in the Galwan Valley and the deployment of thousands of soldiers in the high altitudes of Ladakh have diverted a large portion of New Delhi’s financial resources and strategic focus towards land border security. India cannot currently risk joining a formal naval military pact against China, because it fears that this would provoke Beijing to open new fronts on its mountainous borders. Unlike Australia, which is protected by oceans, India shares a land border with China, and any military confrontation for Delhi would have an immediate and physical cost on its own soil.

Geopolitical security; not a “Pacific NATO”

Many media outlets mistakenly call this cooperation the “Asian NATO”, but the reality is very different. NATO is a product of the Cold War and based on collective defense (NATO Article 5), where an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. But Australia-Japan cooperation is built on flexible geopolitical security.

In the NATO context, unified command and deployment of foreign forces (mostly American) on member states’ soil is a principle. But in the Tokyo-Canberra pact, the main goal is preserving national sovereignty and the security of trade routes without the need for foreign bases or centralized command. These two countries seek to create a safety system for the global economy. The main difference is that NATO was formed to confront an ideology (communism) and an Eastern bloc, but the new alliance in the Pacific is formed to manage interdependence. China is simultaneously the largest trading partner and the largest security threat to both countries. Hence, they do not seek to destroy China, but rather to create “guardrails”][^3] [to contain it.

The Strait of Malacca: the beating heart of the new strategy

Special focus of this new fleet is on the Strait of Malacca. This chokepoint is considered China’s Achilles’ heel. Because a huge portion of China’s required energy passes through this route. Australia and Japan, by strengthening their naval power on both sides of this strait, have in fact created a pressure lever against Beijing. This is a geopolitical chess game where the pieces are arranged in such a way that the cost of any possible military action by China on Taiwan or the East China Sea would be paid with the risk of its own energy security.

Conclusion: a new order without absolute reliance

The recent $7 billion deal shows the political maturity of Japan and Australia. They have realized that in the future multipolar world, security is not something to be sold or delegated. While India is occupied with the Himalayan mountains and the United States with other international crises, the Tokyo-Canberra axis has emerged as the new backbone of security in the Indo-Pacific region, seeking to secure shared economic interests in future potential crises.